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    https://www.valor.com.br/internation..._international
    Valor lesen.
    It's only over when it is over...
    LyondellBasell ist immer noch interessiert, kauft vielleicht aus Bankruptcy protection, was fuer sie juristisch sicherer sein koennte. Es sollen auch neue Interessenten geben. Eine Neustrukturierung under BK Aufsicht scheint am besten, moeglicherweise auch fuer die Bondholders, fuer die ein Plan entworfen wird. Ist jetzt nicht mehr die grosse Phantasie, aber noch ist nicht alles verloren. Die Fond Geier spezialisiert auf solche Faelle kreisen schon. USD 10 schein zur Zeit ein Auffangbecken fuer Interessenten zu sein.

    Kommentar


    Zitat von bonded Hier:05.06.2019, 09:43 Beitrag anzeigen
    https://www.valor.com.br/internation..._international
    Valor lesen.
    It's only over when it is over...
    LyondellBasell ist immer noch interessiert, kauft vielleicht aus Bankruptcy protection, was fuer sie juristisch sicherer sein koennte. Es sollen auch neue Interessenten geben. Eine Neustrukturierung under BK Aufsicht scheint am besten, moeglicherweise auch fuer die Bondholders, fuer die ein Plan entworfen wird. Ist jetzt nicht mehr die grosse Phantasie, aber noch ist nicht alles verloren. Die Fond Geier spezialisiert auf solche Faelle kreisen schon. USD 10 schein zur Zeit ein Auffangbecken fuer Interessenten zu sein.
    Wieso soll Braskem insolvent gehen? Odebrecht braucht das Geld (aus dem Braskem-Verkauf).

    Kommentar


    Zitat von Schnueffelnase Hier:05.06.2019, 10:14 Beitrag anzeigen

    Wieso soll Braskem insolvent gehen? Odebrecht braucht das Geld (aus dem Braskem-Verkauf).
    Braskem ist ein Asset von Odebrecht (hat Stimmenmehrheit) und geht natuerlich nicht insolvent. Die Braskem Anteile dienen Banken als Sicherheit und falls bei deren Verwertung im Bankruptcy Protection Verfahren mehr Geld bei rauskommt als was die Banken wollen, dann ist noch was da fuer Odebrecht. Braskem ist aehnlich wie Bayer mit Monsanto in juristischen Schwierigkeiten in einigen Abbaugebieten und um eventuelle Litigation abzuwenden oder auszugrenzen ist ein Kauf ueber BK Court meiner Meinung nach die sicherste Loesung fuer einen Kaeufer, es koennte sonst teuer werden. Odebrecht nutzt Braskem zuweilen als cashcow, koennte sich jetzt auch wieder Sonderdividenden goennen, wie schon in der Vergangenheit. Das geht wohl kaum unter BK. Die Odebrecht Familie ist sich noch nicht 100% eins, welchen Weg sie beschreiten wollen und koennen. Aber die Zeit ist knapp und das Geld fehlt. Eine Neustrukturierung unter BK Aufsicht kommt wohl als naechstes, dann erhalten Bondholder vielleicht 30% in Form von neuen Bonds, zinslos quasi wie Shares mit Profitbeteiligung. Wenn du also heute einen Bond bei 10 hast, der in 10 Jahren in neuer Form 20 wert ist, hast du deinen Einsatz verdoppelt....High risk, high return, wenn man an das Ueberleben glaubt. Ich frage mich, was mit den Strafen passiert, ob die in BK proportional auch reduziert werden...da gibt es keinerlei Kommentare oder Meinungen.

    Kommentar


    Hier ist ein ausführlicherer Bericht zur immer verworreneren Situation, die für mich schwer einzuschätzen ist. Ich halte meine Anleihen, bei 10 zu verkaufen macht auch nicht viel Sinn.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-o...-idUSKCN1T527N

    Immerhin hat OEC eine neue Webseite: https://www.oec-eng.com/en

    Und die Investorenseite ist auch wieder aktualisiert: http://oec-ir.odebrecht.com/?idioma=enu
    Auf der Titelseite kann man auch den Geschäftsplan ansehen (ohne Registierung) mit dem Odebrecht in die Bond-Verhandlungen gegangen ist. Dabei gehe Odebrecht von vielen neuen Aufträgen in den kommenden Jahren aus. Ob das so klappt ist aber ungewiss ...

    Kommentar


    Braskem was informed by Odebrecht (one of its controlling shareholders)that the sale to LyondellBasell is off. Uncertainties surrounding the bankruptcy protection filing by Atvos (Odebrecht subsidiary) was one of the reasons for the deal cancellation. Local press reported, however, that after an in-court restructuring process for Odebrecht is approved negotiations could resume. Bonds are .25 to 1pts down on the news.
    Security B Px A Px B Yld A Yld

    ODBR 5⅛ 22 8.000 - 11.000 132.32 / 110.08

    ODBR 4⅜ 25 8.000 - 11.000 68.60 / 57.48

    ODBR 5¼ 29 8.000 - 11.000 66.03 / 50.89

    ODBR 7⅛ 42 8.000 - 11.000 85.77 / 62.93

    ODBR 7½ PERP 8.000 - 11.000 92.25 / 67.36

    Kommentar


    "A fourth source, familiar with Odebrecht’s strategy, said the conglomerate believes the Braskem deal failure will give an incentive to creditors to engage in a more organized way in a debt restructuring.

    After concluding the restructuring, the construction group would be able to organize a new process to sell its stake in Braskem."

    Dem stimme ich voll zu.

    Kommentar


    Warum Braskem kein einfacher Fall ist mit vielen Baustellen:



    Braskem was informed by Odebrecht (one of its controlling shareholders)that the sale to LyondellBasell is off. Uncertainties surrounding the bankruptcy protection filing by Atvos (Odebrecht subsidiary) was one of the reasons for the deal cancellation. Local press reported, however, that after an in-court restructuring process for Odebrecht is approved negotiations could resume. Bonds are .25 to 1pts down on the news.



    BRASKEM CURVE
    Description Coupon BID OFFER Price Mid Change YTW Z-Spread Z Chg Mod. Dur. DV01 (1M USD) Outstanding (MM)
    BRASKM 7 05/07/20 7.000 103.150 103.650 103.400 0.0 3.2 76.8 -49.4 0.9 93 400
    BRASKM 5 3/4 04/15/21 5.750 103.100 103.750 103.425 -0.1 3.8 182.5 -15.9 1.7 182 1000
    BRASKM 5 3/8 05/02/22 5.375 103.100 103.750 103.425 -0.3 4.1 224.1 -3.2 2.7 278 500
    BRASKM 3 1/2 01/10/23 3.500 97.650 98.400 98.025 -0.2 4.1 223.5 -9.4 3.3 328 500
    BRASKM 6.45 02/03/24 6.450 107.300 108.000 107.650 -0.4 4.6 271.1 -4.5 4.0 436 750
    BRASKM 4 1/2 01/10/28 4.500 96.450 97.150 96.800 -0.3 5.0 292.4 -7.4 6.9 682 1250
    BRASKM 7 1/8 07/22/41 7.125 112.350 113.250 112.800 -1.1 6.1 381.2 -2.8 11.3 1314 750
    BRASKM 7 3/8 PERP 7.375 100.650 101.550 101.100 -0.4 -70.2 -6704.3 -1092.8 0.0 1 500




    Santander

    Braskem: Lyondell Terminates Negotiations for Potential Acquisition; Back to Fundamentals, Which Remain Challenging for 2019





    Net/Net: Braskem issued a press release this morning stating that its controlling shareholder, Odebrecht S.A., made a joint decision with LyondellBasell to terminate negotiations for a potential transaction that would involve the transfer of Odebrecht's stake in Braskem to LyondellBasell. As a result, we believe the market will now focus solely on Braskem's fundamental outlook, which in our view, remains challenging for 2019, on both the pricing and demand fronts. That, coupled with a rich valuation (~70% above historical, with YE2019E EV/EBITDA of 8.4x) and continued headwinds (publication of 20-F and Alagoas), supports our cautious view on the stock.



    Lackluster petrochemical spreads, pricing in 2019 caused by an oversupply mainly of polyethylene (PE) — which represents ~55% of the company's sales — resulting from new capacity additions ramping up in North America. We also believe that new capacity additions in polypropylene (PP) could potentially affect prices in 2020, depending on the speed of these ramp-ups and the pace of global economic growth.



    Weak demand for resins is also expected, particularly in the key market of Brazil, where economic growth continues to disappoint. In addition, Braskem's operations in Mexico have felt the impact of lower economic activity and a deteriorating growth outlook for the country.



    Headwinds need to be monitored, with the valuation remaining unattractive. Braskem's inability so far to publish its 20-F for 2017 and 2018, along with the impact from its decision to suspend operations at its chlor-alkali and dichloromethane plants in Alagoas, require close monitoring, in our view. Against this backdrop, we see the stock's valuation remaining unattractive at the current trading levels of a YE2019E EV/EBITDA of 8.4x, implying a premium of ~70% to its historical valuation.





    Braskem (BRASKM) - LyondellBasell ends discussions with controlling shareholder

    LyondellBasel announced that it has ended talks with Odebrecht about a potential acquisition of Braskem. The M&A opportunity represented a key catalyst, in our view, and we downgrade BRASKM to Market Weight.





    rade: Swap from BRASKM 2041s into VALEBZ 2039s.

    This morning, LyondellBasell (LYB) announced that it has ended discussions with Braskem's controlling shareholder Odebrecht SA about a potential acquisition. LYB has reportedly been considering an acquisition of Braskem since fall 2017 (“LyondellBasell Makes Takeover Approach to Braskem,” WSJ, 30 October 2017). Valorreported in May 2018 that the Dutch petrochemical company was considering approaching Odebrecht (50.1% voting shares and 38.3% ownership) about a possible takeover, offering a combination of shares and cash. In July 2018, Valor reported that LYB was expected to finalize the deal terms by October, potentially assigning Braskem an enterprise value of nearly BRL55bn (USD14.2bn). This transaction would likely have resulted in a significant integration of LyondellBasell and Braskem facilities, leading to lower production costs through increasing scale and other synergies given overlapping markets.

    LYB has also reportedly agreed to extend the same terms to Petrobras (47.0% voting shares and 36.2% ownership), consistent with the shareholders’ agreement between the oil company and its petrochemical subsidiary (“LyondellBasell close to binding offer for Brazil’s Braskem,” Reuters, November 16, 2018). Reports mentioned that among the requirements sought by LYB is a new long-term naphtha supply agreement with Petrobras (“Valor: Lyondell and Petrobras already negotiate naphtha,” Bloomberg, 17 October 2018). Braskem's current contract expires in 2021 and has been an important issue during continuing negotiations. Petrobras has previously discussed interest in divesting its Braskem stake as part of a broader debt reduction strategy. Petrobras management has stated that if negotiation between LYB and Odebrecht are successfully concluded, the Brazilian oil company would analyze the terms of the offer to assess whether to exercise its rights as defined in Braskem’s shareholder agreement.

    On its 1Q19 earnings call, LYB management reiterated that it continues to “evaluate a potential transaction” for Braskem. Management said that "it has been a rather lengthy period that we have been discussing with our counterparts...but it is a very complex transaction...we are working through it very methodically and thinking through value creation and weighting the risk rewards very carefully." Braskem reported weak 1Q19 results, as revenue and EBITDA declined 14.3% and 60% y/y, respectively. This raised questions of whether LYB would remain committed to the takeover given weaker petrochemical spreads and expectations that softer market conditions could continue through at least 1H19. However, LYB's CEO said "when we think about acquisition of the size and magnitude of Braskem, we have got to really take a longer-term view rather than one of two quarters... so what I would do is sit with my team and go through whether we think the business model has been altered or if there is some structural change in our view...but we don't believe it to be the case...and one outcome from the diligence was that we have confirmed that indeed the assets are of very good quality." Hence, we think there are other reasons that Lyondell concluded talks with Odebrecht. According to Brazil Journal, which reported the breakdown in talks last night before the companies made official announcements, Lyondell terminated discussion after Odebrecht's ethanol unit Atvos, whose approximately USD3.1bn in debt is guaranteed by Braskem's shares, filed for bankruptcy protection.

    We downgrade Braskem to Market Weight, as we believe the risk/reward profile has deteriorated and we no longer expect the spreads to be anchored to LYB. We expect the weaker operating environment this year to reverberate more meaningfully in the absence of a potentially material positive catalyst. Events leading to the breakdown in talks

    The geological phenomenon and a subsequent suspension of salt extraction in Alagoas

    The geological issues in the state of Alagoas were also cited as a potential reason for LYB's termination of the transaction. On April 2, 2019, the public prosecutor's office and the public defender's office, both of the state of Alagoas, filed a lawsuit against Braskem requesting a BRL6.7bn (c.USD1.7bn) asset freeze to guarantee any potential damages to parties affected by the geological events that occurred in districts near its rock salt extraction facility in Maceio. Management said the company has been collaborating with the relevant authorities for more than a year to identify the causes of cracks in properties and roads. It reaffirmed the lack of technical analysis to conclude that Braskem's activities are responsible for the geological phenomenon. The company expected to conclude internal investigations in the next few months, with a preliminary government study to be released by the end of April.

    On April 5, 2019, the civil court of Maceio in the state of Alagoas partially satisfied the public prosecutors' request to issue a preliminary injunction in the amount of BRL100mn. Braskem reaffirmed that technical analyses were still in progress and that any conclusion was possible. The injunction amount came substantially lower than the requested figure, which was based on property compensation (BRL500k per person), one year in rent, and moral damages for each resident of the affected area (close to 30k people).

    On April 15, 2019, the appeal court of Maceio sided with the state prosecutors to suspend the BRL2.67bn dividend distribution scheduled for April 16 until the merits of the appeal are evaluated. Braskem announced the BRL2.67bn related to the 2018 fiscal year, which equals 100% of the net income distributable to shareholders.

    On May 8, 2019, the Brazilian Geological Service (CPRM) released the report, which concluded that sodium chloride (aka salt) extraction led to land sinking and deformations in the regions of the Pinheiro, Mutange, and Bebedouro districts. In addition, the issues in the Pinheiro were exacerbated by the lack of effective water drainage network and adequate basic sanitation, among other factors. Braskem said it will analyze the report's conclusions and take appropriate measures. The report did not mention a small earthquake that occurred in March 2018, which according to the company led to "some cracks" on the streets and homes close to its salt mine operations.

    On May 9, 2019, the company announced preemptive suspension of salt extraction activities and chlor-alkali and dichloriethane plants in Maceio, Alagoas. Braskem is also evaluating the effect on the PVC plant in Alagoas and other facilities located in the Camacari Petrochemical complex in Bahia that are also integrated into the PVC production chain. Braskem is one of the most important companies in the state of Alagoas, contributing roughly 20% of the state's tax revenues and employing approximately 700 employees and almost 1,500 third-party contractors, according to management.

    Braskem operates caustic soda and chlorine production facilities (chlor-alkali chain, which mainly uses electric power and salt) in Maceio, which are integrated in its polyvinyl chloride (PVC) chain (part of the company's vinyls segment). PVC products mainly serve the construction market. Since many PVC imports originate from Asia, the price in Brazil is set by a reference to the Asian benchmark, plus freight costs and tariffs. Braskem forecasts that vinyls spreads will increase about 2.1% in 2019, as PVC and caustic soda prices are expected to recover. During the 1Q19 call, management stated that the vinyls business in Brazil represents 3-5% of consolidated EBITDA. While the company’s base case does not include a complete curtailment of the segment’s operations, it has yet to estimate the direct effects of the salt mine shutdown. During our recent discussion with the CFO, it was indicated that Braskem is evaluating contingencies or alternatives of importing salt to manufacture chlorine. In the unlikely scenario that it cannot source sufficient salt, the company could export excess ethylene.

    Valor Economico reported that issues surrounding the salt extraction in Maceio have put the merger discussions between Braskem and LyondellBasel on hold ("Braskem's Sale on Hold due to Case in Alagoas Salt Mine," Valor, 14 May 2019). It said that Lyondell wants "clarity about the problem and the cost of the solution" in case Braskem is found responsible. Failure to file the form 20-F and delisting of ADRs from the NYSE

    In May 2018, Braskem noted that it would not be able to file the form 20-F for the fiscal year 2017, as the company has been conducting additional procedures and analyses on its internal processes and controls. The NYSE extended the filing deadline by six months from May 16, 2018. In November 2018, the NYSE granted an additional extension until March 15, 2019, to file the 2017 annual report. However, the company was again not in a position to file 20-F by March and received a further extension until May 16, 2019. Braskem disclosed that failure to file reports in this timeframe would lead to de-listing procedures and a simultaneous halt the trading of its ADRs. On May 13, 2019, the NYSE suspended Braskem's ADRs and initiated de-listing procedures. That said, Braskem remains in compliance with CVM (the Brazilian securities market regulator), and its ADRs are currently trading on the OTC. During our discussion on April 22 (Barclays Premier Event: LatAm Corporate Management VC Series: Braskem (BRASKM) Virtual Meeting), management stated that its new auditor KPMG was ready to sign off on the form 20-F for 2018 but was still waiting for PWC to approve the 20-F for 2017. According to Valor, one of the necessary conditions from Lyondell to proceed with the transaction was filing the 20-F ("Braskem sale still pending on internal issues," Valor, 8 May 2019). Braskem added CGU and AGU to the Global Settlement agreement entered in 2016

    As a reminder, during Petrobras’s internal investigations, Braskem found irregularities in the approval process for naphtha supply agreements with the oil company. In addition, an Operation Car Wash report discovered that Braskem disbursed funds to the non-profit organizations of former Brazilian Presidents Lula and Cardoso. Odebrecht's CEO has also been arrested in connection with multiple bribery charges. In December 2016, Braskem entered into a leniency agreement with Brazil’s federal prosecutor office (MPF) and pleaded guilty to a one-count criminal charge related to the US Foreign Corruption Practices act. Under the global settlement, signed with the US DOJ and SEC, Braskem agreed to pay nearly BRL3.1bn (roughly USD960mn) to various government entities. As of 1Q19, the obligations related to the leniency agreement totaled roughly USD340mn. In July 2018, Braskem commented on the news report concerning the leniency agreement connected to Operation Car Wash, stating that it has not yet concluded discussions with the Office of the Federal Controller General (CGU) and the Office of the Attorney General (AGU). On May 27, 2019, the company reported that its board has approved the terms of the settlement, which provides for an additional payment of BRL410mn payable in two installments in 2024 and 2025 (adjusted by the SELIC rate). Braskem still awaits the ratification of the agreement by the 13th Federal Court of Curitiba. We believe it is likely that the inclusion of the CGU and AGU in the global settlement could increase the likelihood of the auditors' approving the annual reports.

    Kommentar


    https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-ne...ncial-trouble/

    In dem Artikel wird beschrieben, dass durch den Fall der Braskem-Aktien (Gründe: kein Verkauf an LydollBasel sowie Sperrung von Dividendenzahlungen durch Gericht wegen Umweltverschmutzung) diese nun nicht mehr zur Besicherung der Bankdarlehen ausreichen, die Sicherung nun also unter Wasser ist. Die Banco do Brasil gibt sich aber Gelassen, das sie für Ausfälle hinreichend vorgesorgt hätte. In der Odebrecht-Führung würde die Bereitschaft für ein Insolvenzverfahren der Holding-Company steigen.

    Wäre eine Insolvenz der Holding-Company negativ für die OEC, die ja schon eine Restruktuierung der Anleihen durchführt?
    Vermutlich nicht. Erstens betrifft es OEC nicht direkt und ein Besitzerwechsel ist nicht ungedingt negativ.
    Und Entschuldung der Holding würde Klarheit schaffen, was dann auch OEC guttäte.
    Aber: durch einen Insolvenzantrag der Holding gäbe es erst einem lange Zeit weitere Unsicherheit.

    Kommentar


    Odebrecht's construction arm accelerates debt talks.pdf

    Kommentar


    https://www.valor.com.br/internation..._international

    Valor lesen!
    Wie vermutet:
    Heute soll BK verfahren eingeleitet werden.
    R$80 bio werden restructured
    Bonds sollen unter "extra judical recovery" restructured werden.

    Kommentar


    Skandalkonzern Odebrecht ist pleite
    Das brasilianische Unternehmen wolle Schulden in Höhe von 51 Milliarden Reais (11,7 Milliarden Euro) "restrukturieren", wie Odebrecht mitteilte.

    Kommentar


    OEC ist offensichtlich nicht in die Insolvenz einbezogen.
    Für OEC und deren US-Bonds ändert sich also nichts. Dass es keine Unterstützung durch den Mutterkonzern geben wird, war seit der Braskem-Verkaufs-Absage schon klar.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/odeb...-idUSL2N23O1FY

    "The debt restructuring does not include petrochemical producer Braskem SA, sugar and ethanol subsidiary Atvos Agroindustrial Participacoes SA, construction unit Odebrecht Engenharia e Construcao (OEC), oil company Ocyan, shipmaker Enseada, Odebrecht Transport or homebuilder Incorporadora OR."

    Kommentar


    Zitat von thomassamoth Hier:18.06.2019, 08:41 Beitrag anzeigen
    OEC ist offensichtlich nicht in die Insolvenz einbezogen.
    Für OEC und deren US-Bonds ändert sich also nichts. Dass es keine Unterstützung durch den Mutterkonzern geben wird, war seit der Braskem-Verkaufs-Absage schon klar.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/odeb...-idUSL2N23O1FY

    "The debt restructuring does not include petrochemical producer Braskem SA, sugar and ethanol subsidiary Atvos Agroindustrial Participacoes SA, construction unit Odebrecht Engenharia e Construcao (OEC), oil company Ocyan, shipmaker Enseada, Odebrecht Transport or homebuilder Incorporadora OR."
    Einbezogen sind:

    Foram incluídas no pedido de recuperação 21 empresas do grupo, entre elas a Odebrecht S.A., Odebrecht Serviços e Participações, ODB International Corporation, Odebrecht Finance Limited, Odebrecht Energia Investimentos, Odebrecht Partcipações, entre outras.

    Nicht einbezogen sind:

    Segundo o comunicado da empresa, não estão incluídas no pedido de recuperação judicial as seguintes empresas: Braskem S.A., Odebrecht Engenharia e Construção S.A., Ocyan S.A., OR S.A., Odebrecht Transport S.A., Enseada Industria Naval S.A., assim como alguns ativos operacionais na América Latina e suas respectivas subsidiárias.

    https://oglobo.globo.com/economia/od...-pais-23746397

    Somit könnte sich schon was ändern; der Emittent der Bonds ist pleite, der Garantiegeber nicht. Oder ist der Bond etwa von einer anderen Odebrecht Finance Ltd. begeben worden?

    Kommentar


    Zitat von ff7917 Hier:18.06.2019, 10:35 Beitrag anzeigen

    Somit könnte sich schon was ändern; der Emittent der Bonds ist pleite, der Garantiegeber nicht. Oder ist der Bond etwa von einer anderen Odebrecht Finance Ltd. begeben worden?
    Die US Bonds sind von Odebrecht Finance Ltd., also müssten diese doch in die Insolvenz einbezogen werdern. In einen Valor Artikel stand aber auch, dass die US Bonds ausserhalb des Insolvenzverfahren restruktuiert werden soll. Die Situation ist unklar ....

    Kommentar


    Zitat von thomassamoth Hier:18.06.2019, 13:08 Beitrag anzeigen

    In einen Valor Artikel stand aber auch, dass die US Bonds ausserhalb des Insolvenzverfahren restruktuiert werden soll. Die Situation ist unklar ....
    Das sehe ich auch so.
    Im BK wird der Bondholder normalerweise auch zum shareholder.
    Hier moechte der Eigentuemer nichts abgeben, aber die Schulden loswerden. Das geht eben nur bis zum gewissen Grad.... Die Bondholder sollen einen neuen Bond mit Ergebnisbeteiligung erhalten, was ich nicht fuer attraktiv genug halte als dass es da eine Einigung mit den Bondholders auf der Basis geben kann.

    Kommentar

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