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    Turkey to sell foreign currency bonds to individual investors

    [QUOTE][ISTANBUL, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Turkey will issue foreign currency bonds to individual investors from next week, its Treasury said on Wednesday, a move aimed at broadening the government’s funding and tapping into money that is sitting in bank accounts.

    It was not clear how this fits with President Tayyip Erdogan’s call for Turks to convert their foreign currency and gold savings into lira to prop up the currency. Erdogan has cast the lira’s sell-off as an attack on the economy.

    The Turkish Treasury said it would start issuing the euro and U.S. dollar-denominated bonds next week to “diversify borrowing instruments and to broaden the investor base”.

    A currency crisis this year has seen the lira fall as much as 47 percent against the U.S. dollar, before recovering some losses. It is now down around 30 percent year-to-date. The crisis was sparked by investor concerns about the central bank’s independence and a diplomatic rift with the United States.
    “In recent years, volatility has caused serious concerns for local investors. Investments have shifted to deposits. We need to mobilise those investors, those balance sheets,” Finance Minister Berat Albayrak said in a speech in Istanbul.
    The bonds will have a maturity of one year and a coupon period of six months, the Treasury said, adding that the demand for the securities will be collected through intermediary banks, including state lender Halkbank, Is Bank, Akbank and others.


    Total bank deposits increased by more than 20 percent to 2.11 trillion lira ($391.90 billion) as of November from the end of last year, according to data from the banking watchdog.
    /QUOTE]

    https://www.reuters.com/article/turk...-idUSL8N1YH2AF

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    Turkey Tilts Dovish Again But Extends Rate Pause After Lira Rout

    The Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Murat Cetinkaya kept its benchmark at 24 percent on Thursday, in line with the forecasts of all economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In a departure from its previous language on the outlook for rates, the bank removed a reference to “decisively” maintaining restrictive policy.
    “The committee has decided to maintain the tight monetary policy stance until the inflation outlook displays a significant improvement,”
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-lira-meltdown

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    Turkey's Lira Kicks Off 2019 on the Wrong Foot

    Whether investors are getting wary over the prospect of premature monetary easing after inflation slowed again in December, or they’re simply closing out long positions after a spectacular run last quarter, is still not clear.
    But after months of calm trading, price action on the dollar-lira cross -- compounded by Wednesday night’s “flash crash” -- is a sign that trading could turn choppy as local elections in March approach.



    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-risks-abound

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    Turkish lira in deep trouble after another crash

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/67364233.cms

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    Turkish lira slides as Erdogan rejects U.S. calls, threatens ‘necessary lesson’ to Kurds

    The Turkish lira on Tuesday fell sharply against the U.S. dollar as well, as the euro, as tensions between Turkey and the U.S. over military involvement in Syria took a negative turn.


    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tu...rds-2019-01-08



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    Turkey’s ruling party dips into central bank to fund campaign

    An amendment passed on Saturday will force publicly owned companies to pay advance dividends this month – a move that would grant the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government a much-needed influx of cash in the run-up to March 31 local elections.



    The amendment will affect any institution whose shares are more than 50 percent publicly owned, a list that includes some of Turkey’s largest banks as well as the national postal service, Turkish Airlines, the state-owned tea giant Çaykur, and others.

    It will also affect the Central Bank of Turkey. The Treasury owns the largest stake in the central bank, and it is to the Treasury that it transfers its profits every year, usually after the annual board meeting in April.

    The 2019 budget projects the amount the Treasury will gain from public banks and public enterprise at 24.3 billion lira ($4.5 billion). The amount of profit that will be generated by the central bank is still not clear. But given the extraordinary fluctuations in the lira over the past year and the high interest rates in Turkey, one would expect a significant rise over last year’s figures.

    Uğur Gürses, an economist and former governor of the central bank, said he expected profits of 35 billion lira. Five billion lira of this would go on corporate tax, and another 20 billion lira would go straight to the Treasury as a dividend.

    In short, the amendment aims to provide the Treasury with an injection of cash to the tune of around 50 billion lira ($9.27 billion) by the end of the month, around three months ahead of schedule.

    The cash could not be needed more urgently: in truth, the Treasury is at the moment completely bare. Over the last two months several of its borrowing tenders have been cancelled in order to leave cash for the markets and keep interest rates down. Meanwhile, attempts to create an impression that interest rates are falling have backfired and led to higher sales of the lira, forcing the central bank to sell dollar, euro and gold bonds.

    The Treasury’s move to foreign currency and gold bonds comes just months after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his son-in-law, Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, urged Turkish citizens to convert all their savings to lira, framing this as a national duty to stave off impending crisis as the lira hit record lows.

    Yet now it is Albayrak encouraging Turks to put their money in the “safe and guaranteed” investment of Treasury foreign currency bonds.

    Despite the government heavily pushing the bonds, no more than 1.1 billion lira ($207 million) were sold between Dec. 17 and Dec. 21. Rather, Turks are putting their money directly in foreign currency accounts, which saw deposits worth 22 billion lira during the same period.

    That the public has spurned the 4 percent interest on dollar bonds and 2.5 percent interest on euro bonds is the clearest sign of their mistrust in the government’s promises and economic policies.

    Thus, severely lacking in funding sources and with just three months left until the election, Erdoğan’s government has turned to the central bank and other public institutions to find cash for the election economy and to fulfil its vows.

    Durmuş Yılmaz, a former governor of the central bank now serving as deputy leader of the nationalist opposition Good Party, believes the move indicates a desperate shortage of cash as well as the short-termism in the government’s economic policies.

    In one sense, the aim of this extraordinary appropriation of the central bank – which completely undermines its already shaky reputation – is a direct attempt to use it as its “election coffers” for March 31. At the same time, the repeat sale of dollar and euro bonds between Jan. 7 and Feb. 1 shows the lack of options besides “dollarising” public savings and the economy.

    It is likely that in the run-up to the election, the central bank will look to drop interest rates, using the decrease in inflation to 20.3 percent – the lowest since last August – as a justification. This is all very well, except that the decrease was largely driven by the government’s drive to artificially lower inflation by offering a 10 percent discount on the goods used to measure the inflation index.

    Faik Öztrak, a deputy chair for the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), believes the public’s lack of interest in government bonds is down to mistrust bred by this type of manipulation. In fact, Öztrak says, the AKP government is simply attempting to shore the economy up until March 31, after which he thinks a deal with the International Monetary Fund is inevitable.

    “Turkey is fast returning to the conditions of 1994,” Öztrak said, referring to a previous currency crisis that saw the exchange rate plummet by more than half, inflation rise to triple digits and the central bank lose half its value
    .


    https://ahvalnews.com/turkey-economy...-fund-campaign




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    ANLEIHEN
    Staatsbonds aus dem Nahen Osten bieten hohe Renditen


    Saudi-Arabien und die Türkei produzieren zurzeit keine guten Schlagzeilen. Trotzdem wagen sich beide Länder mit Dollar-Bonds an den Markt.
    Frank Wiebe 10.01.2019 - 16:16 Uhr
    ...
    Türkische Staatsanleihen mit 20 Jahren Restlaufzeit werden mit Renditen von 7,8 Prozent gehandelt, vierjährige Laufzeiten werfen immer noch mehr als vier Prozent ab.
    ...
    https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanze.../23850964.html

    (Hinweis: Der Artikel ist auch im Saudi-Thread gepostet, weil sich die Inhalte überschneiden.)

    Kommentar


    Turkish central bank chief vows to maintain ‘tight’ policy

    Murat Cetinkaya says bank will not cut rates until ‘convincing’ fall in inflation

    “A tight monetary policy stance will be maintained until a convincing fall in the inflation rate is observed,” he said. “If needs be, in line with this target, further tightening will be introduced.”




    https://www.ft.com/content/543c34b6-...9-c7e6ceb5ffdf








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    Deutsche Bank says lira, Columbian peso among cheapest currencies

    The Turkish lira, Columbian peso and Swedish krona are the cheapest currencies in the world, according to calculations by Deutsche Bank.
    The valuation model has “significant predictive power” for foreign exchange prices, the German bank said, according to a report by news and research portal Business Insider on Monday.
    The currencies were assessed by combining Deutsche Bank’s capital-based and trade-based purchasing power parity valuation methods, which it claims better reflect a currency’s value than more traditional approaches.
    Some investors are looking to emerging markets to increase their profits after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it was slowing the pace of interest rate increases. Lower U.S. interest rates make the currencies of riskier emerging markets more attractive in terms of price.
    Other major currencies seen as cheap included the Canadian dollar and British pound, while the most expensive were the Thai baht, the New Zealand dollar and the Brazilian real, according to Deutsche Bank.
    The valuation model is noteworthy “both in terms of directional accuracy and the magnitude of moves, especially over longer-term horizons”, Deutsche Bank said, according to Business Insider.





    https://ahvalnews.com/turkish-lira/d...est-currencies

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    Gerade noch USD 1 Milliarde aufgenommen, jetzt schon Kollateralschäden auf den Golan-Höhen: https://www.reuters.com/article/turk...-idUSD5N1X900P. Hatte sich vorher schon angekündigt: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...spooks-traders

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    "Losing Faith" - Turkish Lira Crashes As Central Bank Unexpectedly Tightens Policy:
    https://twitter.com/TheBubbleBubble/...63793949573121

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    Erdogan stürzt die Türkei in den Börsencrash

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    Quelle Finanz und Wirtschaft
    Ausverkauf bei türkischen Anleihen

    Die Anleger sind wenige Tage vor den türkischen Kommunalwahlen nervös und werfen Staatsanleihen aus ihren Depots.

    Die Anleger sind wenige Tage vor den türkischen Kommunalwahlen nervös und werfen Staatsanleihen aus ihren Depots.

    (Reuters) Wenige Tage vor den türkischen Kommunalwahlen steigt die Nervosität der Anleger. Sie warfen Staatsanleihen des Landes am Mittwoch in hohem Bogen aus ihren Depots. Dies trieb die Rendite der bis 2030 laufenden Dollar-Bonds auf 8,122 von 7,764%. Parallel dazu verteuerte sich die Absicherung eines 10 Mo. $ schweren Pakets türkischer Anleihen gegen Zahlungsausfall um 25’000 auf 441 000 $, teilte der Datenanbieter Markit mit. Dies ist der höchste Stand seit sechseinhalb Monaten. Damit haben sich die sogenannten Credit Default Swaps (CDS) binnen einer Woche um etwa 100 000 $ verteuert.

    Am Devisenmarkt ging die Talfahrt der türkische Währung trotz verdeckter Eingriffe weiter. Der Kurs des Dollar stieg zeitweise auf ein Zwei-Monats-Hoch von 5,4522 Lira. Die türkische Zentralbank hatte zuvor ihre standardmässigen wöchentlichen Refinanzierungsgeschäfte für Geschäftsbanken vorläufig gestoppt. Kredite vergibt sie nur über andere, höher verzinste Instrumente.

    Darüber hinaus liehen türkische Banken ausländischen Instituten vorerst keine Lira mehr, sagten Insider. Sie wollten diese Praxis bis nach den Kommunalwahlen am Wochenende beibehalten. Daraufhin schoss der Zins für Lira-Übernachtkredite in London auf 700%. Vergangene Woche hatte er noch bei 22% gelegen.

    Diese Massnahmen sollten Anlegern Wetten auf einen weiteren Verfall der Lira erschweren, schrieben die Analysten der BayernLB. «Dass derartige Massnahmen nicht nachhaltiger Natur sind, ist jedem klar. Die Türkei ist schliesslich immer noch im grossen Umfang von ausländischem Kapital abhängig.»

    Kommentar




    Privatpersonen in der Türkei horten Devisen und Edelmetalle. Der türkischen Zentralbank zufolge erreichte das Volumen dieser Bestände Mitte März ein Rekordhoch von 105,74 Milliarden Dollar.

    Kommentar


    Die (USD-)Anleihekurse erholen sich etwas.

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