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    UPDATE 1-Bolsa Buenos Aires steigert die Prognose der Sojabohnenernte in Argentinien auf 55 Millionen Tonnen, das Klima steigert die Erträge


    The country-risk above 800 basis points and default insurance (CDS) in u$s900 are saying something. These prices are market prices and what they seem to be reflecting is the agents' belief that Argentina could face a scenario that would go from financial distress to the eventuality of a debt default. In Creole: that future revenues would not be sufficient to cover the commitments made and there are doubts about private financing.

    Argentina's EMBI+ produced by JP Morgan may not be reflecting the true country-risk. The indicator is constructed on the basis of the bond equivalent to the 10-year-old U.S. Treasury bond, Bonar 28, which is less traded than the rest. The last deal with this bond was on April 3 and the rate of return was 10.57%. Only yesterday it appeared again on the screens, without changes.

    The yields of the most traded sovereigns, although yesterday prices recovered somewhat, are still at high levels. The Bonar 20 has a return of 13.84%, the Bonar 24 offers 14.48% and the Discount, 14.10%. ( Ley ARG, notiert in ARS$ )

    Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are a derivative that functions as an insurance policy against the eventual non-payment of an obligation. The premium for the 5-year version jumped from u$s570 in February to u$s900 in less than 2 months. For the one-year bonds, the increase was more dramatic, going from u$s300 at the end of January to u$s816 this week.

    The Government did well to disseminate the update of the Financial Program 2019 and 2020. It tried to communicate that next year's financial needs are covered if the percentage of renewal of the Letters (Letes, Lecap and Lecer) issued by the Treasury averages 67%. In the last auction held this week, the percentage of Letes was 66%, but renewed almost 12% more than Lecap expired, at the price of paying 55.02%, two hundred points above what these bills are quoted on the secondary market.

    However, a more detailed analysis of the figures released by the Ministry of Finance leaves room to justify market skepticism. For next year, the obligations add up to u$s31.9 billion. They are u$s15.200 million of private interests, u$s13.700 of amortizations and u$s3.000 to international financial institutions.

    How do you plan to cover these commitments? With the renewal of private debt for u$s17.8 billion; role of 100% of Letes for u$s9.5 billion, u$s5.2 billion of the expected primary surplus, and u$s5.2 billion pending disbursement from the IMF. These are all assumptions, which add up to u$s32,500, without considering the part of the Monetary Fund.

    It is probable and almost certain that this year the Treasury will have no difficulties in honoring interest and amortizations. The IMF dollars practically function as a guarantee for those obligations. In this second quarter, for example, Finance plans to pay u$s8,276 million in amortizations, other u$s3,417 million in interest and other commitments for u$s3,056 million. In total: u$s14,749 million. It would obtain them from renewals of the public sector and with some u$s4.275 million of international reserves, which this week were increased with the fourth disbursement of the stand by credit for u$s10.870 million.

    After the Easter holidays, the Treasury will have to pay u$s2,750 million of amortization of the Bonar 19. They are u$s2,750 million plus the income coupon of 3.125%, in addition to the Bonar 46 coupon. In the case of the Bonar 19, it is estimated that the titles are all in the hands of foreign holders, since they were issued in 2016 for the regularization of the debt with the holdouts, reason for which it is supposed that they will hardly be reinvested in Argentine bonds.

    That same week is scheduled the next bidding of Treasury Bills, in pesos and dollars, although it was not yet specified which species will be offered or the date of maturities.

    We will have to see how the renewal percentages follow, as the maturities operate after the primary or an eventual but very probable ballot. The political electoral factor may or may not profile the silhouette the ghost of financial distress.

    But while country-risk, default insurance, and sovereign bond yields suggest a difficult scenario, the dollar seems to have decoupled. Something suggestive, considering that the nominal exchange rate is practically the same, while inflation, from the change of monetary policy to control of aggregates, rose 23.5%.

    Perhaps the expectation of a greater supply of agricultural export dollars and the Treasury's currency bids at a rate of u$s60 million daily since Monday are influencing the market.

    Quelle: 12.04.19

    Translated with
    Zuletzt geändert von Matthias; 12.04.2019, 17:10.


    Zitat von stupidgame Hier:13.04.2019, 11:36 Beitrag anzeigen
    Das wäre nett, wenn die Vene-Themen im Vene-Thread blieben. Danke.
    Ich schließe mich dieser Bitte an. Diskutiert bitte im Vene Thread weiter.


    Kiguel zu IMF und viel Wunschdenken imho..

    The economist Miguel Kiguel considered that Argentina should "change the agreement" with the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) to make it less rigid in relation to the use of foreign currency in the exchange market.At the same time, he thought that Argentina's Stand by agreement with the IMF should be transformed into a new loan with facilities extended to 10 years ", given that the country can not afford the debt that expires in 2022.


    Finally, the economist rejected certain analyzes by economists who claim that Argentina is heading to default. "It seems irresponsible to talk about a default
    , the average cost of debt in Argentine dollars is 5.7%, it is not a high cost, we have a high country risk but the cost of debt is not high," he said.

    "It is very difficult to think that Argentina can improve the terms of a restructuring debt, the country will be able to pay its debts, so its chances of restructuring are very low," he concluded.

    "Argentina's problem is obvious, in 2022, it has to pay the Fund US $ 20 billion, which is impossible to pay, but that is not a problem that will lead to default, one will sit down and renegotiate." , he remarked.

    "Who will be the main creditor of Argentina? The IMF: 65% of their loans will go to Argentina, Argentina's debt will represent 25% of the Fund's capital," he said.



    so wie bei Griechen und EU

    Ist wie in dem Bonmot: Wenn du deiner Bank 30.000 schuldest, hast du ein Problem. Wenn du deiner Bank 30 Mio. schuldest, hat deine Bank ein Problem.


    by the way:

    Candidates have until June 22 to officially announce their candidacy
    ab dann könnte also schon Entspannung reinkommen, wenn CFK nicht kandidiert


    "Heute endet eine lange Wartezeit und Montag wird der Moment der Wahrheit sein. Die BCRA wird bis zu den Wahlen mit 60 Millionen Dollar pro Tag Versteigerungen der für das Finanzministerium zuständigen Währungen beginnen. Die Pesos werden solange in der BCRA hinterlegt, bis sie für steuerliche Zwecke verwendet werden müssen, so dass die Auswirkungen auf die Liquidität und die Realzinsen erheblich sein werden ", berichtete die SBS Group Brokerage.


    Der Peronist Gustavo Bordet hat am Wochenende bei den Gouverneursvorwahlen im Bundesstaat Entre Rios gegen den von Macri unterstützten Cambiemos-Kandidaten Atilio Benedetti mit deutlichem Vorsprung gewonnen. Eine erneute Schlappe für Macri 1.


    Zitat von esteban Hier:15.04.2019, 09:16 Beitrag anzeigen
    Heute endet eine lange Wartezeit und Montag wird der Moment der Wahrheit sein
    US Dollar / Argentinischer Peso (USD/ARS)
    Währung WKN: 601397
    -1,34 % -0,565

    31.702,60 +345,57 (1,10 %)


    The money manager is also keeping an eye on Argentina, expecting that investment opportunities will arise once concern fades that Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner might win back the presidency in October’s elections.

    “The end of that story could be positive, but it’s not the time yet to make that bet,” he said.


    the next administration expects debt maturities in foreign currency for US $ 20,376 million in 2020, US $ 31,608 million in 2021, US $ 49,923 million in 2022 (the amount higher for the entire period 2020-2045) and 46,594 million in 2023, while the disbursements expected from the IMF are only US $ 3,875 million and US $ 1,937 million for the years 2020 and 2021, respectively "


    Matthias unschön vor allem:
    “La renegociación [der Staatschulden] es inevitable”,consideró el exdirector del Banco Central.


    Argentina begins IMF approved daily auction of US$ 60m to recover Pesos


    Zitat von Wurzel Hier:16.04.2019, 17:55 Beitrag anzeigen
    Argentina begins IMF approved daily auction of US$ 60m to recover Pesos
    ... und verzeichnet die ersten kurzfristigen Erfolge -

    Mittels Taschenspielertricks innerhalb des Geldsystems versucht der IWF die fehlende Substanz zu verschleiern ... bis zur totalen Pleite, falls sie es schaffen sollten über die Wahl zu kommen.


    Zitat von asche Hier:16.04.2019, 16:45 Beitrag anzeigen
    Matthias unschön vor allem:

    Bocco hat unter dem alten Kirchner verschiedene Posten bekleidet, ist also eher der CFK-Liga zuzuordnen. Insofern wird da ein wenig überspitzt argumentiert. Natürlich sind die Zahlen nicht schön, die Lage eher ernst, das Länderrisiko hoch und eine Ausfallabsicherung extrem teuer.